07 May 2023

《大萧条》 (Cowen 2011) 一书中写道房贷和次级贷款是经济好坏的晴雨表:Housing and subprime loans were the proverbial canary in the coal mine, but the real problem was that investors took on too much risk across the board.

这里,作者用 canary in the coal mine 来表示危险的征兆、晴雨表。那么为什么 canary 金丝雀这种可爱的小鸟可以放到煤矿里做危险的征兆呢?

携带金丝雀到煤矿这种做法最早可以追溯到 1911 年,因为煤矿中经常会产生有毒的一氧化碳毒气,而金丝雀对一氧化碳敏感,会最先产生中毒症状。

有个叫约翰·斯科特·霍尔丹(John Scott Haldane)的人,经过一番研究之后,推荐在煤矿中使用金丝雀检测一氧化碳和其他有毒气体。

所以那时候,矿工会带着金丝雀进入煤矿采矿,如果一氧化碳浓度太高,金丝雀可以及时警告危险,工人们就能及时避免危险。另外,那时候,矿工们也把这种可爱金丝雀当作宠物,闲暇时候逗着玩。

再举个例子:

5 月 5 日的金融新闻说 Nvidia 营收下降是公司业绩下滑的警告。记者用了“煤矿中的金丝雀唱响了一阵警告”这种一语双关的用法:

Nvidia Stock: This Canary in the Coal Mine Is Singing a Warning

Maybe Nvidia knocks it out of the park, and the stock continues roaring higher – it wouldn’t be the first time I was wrong. But the canary in the coal mine is singing a tune, and investors should at least listen.

当然,后来有了一氧化碳检测传感器之后,就不太用得到金丝雀了。

References

Cowen, Tyler. 2011. The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better. Dutton.